Download Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs: Proceedings of by Helmut Jungermann, Gerard De Zeeuw (auth.), Helmut PDF

By Helmut Jungermann, Gerard De Zeeuw (auth.), Helmut Jungermann, Gerard De Zeeuw (eds.)

It is barely only in the near past that individuals have the instruments to pass judgement on how good they're doing while making judgements. those instruments have been conceptualized within the 17th century. seeing that then many of us have labored to sharpen the ideas, and to discover how those could be utilized additional. the issues of decision-making and the speculation built correspondingly have drawn the curiosity of mathematicians, psychologists, statisticians, economists, philosophers, organizational specialists, sociologists, not just for his or her normal relevance, but additionally for a extra intrinsic fascination. There are a number of institutionalized actions to disseminate effects and stimulate learn in decision-making. for approximately a decade now a eu organizational constitution, founded in most cases round the psy­ chological curiosity in decision-making. there were meetings in Hamburg, Amsterdam, Uxbridge, Rome and Darmstadt. convention papers were partially published+. The association has hence stabilized, and its re­ latively lengthy background makes it attention-grabbing to determine what sort of advancements happened, in the quarter of interest.

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Additional info for Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs: Proceedings of the Fifth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making, Darmstadt, 1–4 September, 1975

Sample text

Regarding decision criteria, one could point to the controversy over maximizing vs. satisficing, discussed lately again by Olander (1975); the satisficing principle has often to be favored above the maximizing principle, when time pressure H. JUNGERMANN 40 or limited resources do not permit the decision maker to choose or even look for an optimal solution of his problem - doubtless the normal conditions of societal decision making. e. behavior independent of any social context. But studies on the aggregation of opinions (Hogarth, this volume) are particularly relevant for societal decision making, since these decisions are often - and should more often b~ - based on aggregated rather than individual opinions; the aggregation may be the result of the application of some statistical method or _ ~he usual case- ~f some group process.

G. smoking) are dis- counted. Finally, perceived risk may depend greatly upon the way in which the relevant information is presented. " However, when this figure is translated into the equivalent number of "additional cancer deaths per year", the risk may take on quite a different perspective. Research on these phenomena may also help us understand how the public responds to scientific information about risk. Growing concern over environmental risks has increased scientific research on the effects of such hazards as herbicides, fertilizers, pesticides, pollution and radiation.

When Lichtenstein and Slovic (1971) observed anchoring bias in subjects' evaluations of gambles, they repeated the study, with identical results, on the floor of a Las Vegas casino (Lichtenstein & Slovic, 1973). Particularly relevant to the present paper is evidence illustrating these sorts of biases in individuals attempting to cope with natural disasters. For example, availability biases are apparent in the behavior of residents on the flood plain. Kates (1962, p. 140) writes: A major limitation to human ability to use improved flood hazard information is a basic reliance on experience.

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