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By Ricardo A. Bitran

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All elasticities computed at a distance of 500 meters from the provider. In the remainder of this section a series of simulation exercises is presented to illustrate how utilization and financial performance variables are affected by changes in selected exogenous variables. The outcome of each simulation exercise must be compared with that of the base scenario. An Increase in the Price of Curative Care at the Health Center The first simulation exercise, shown in exhibit 4-3, consists of a Z100 price increase for curative care on the part of the health center, from Z758 to Z858.

Simulations The Base Scenario Exhibit 4-1 constitutes the base scenario. 1, the base consists of a market of 10,000 people, with 60 percent living within 2 kilometers of the health center. The radius of the market is 10 kilometers (area =314 Km2). S. dollar. Health center total prices range from a low of Z150 for prenatal and preschool care to a high of Z1,019 for deliveries. Health center total price for prenatal care, preschool care, and chronic care is below the actual cost to the health center of drugs used for those services.

Leaving health care quality out of the model, however, is consistent with our current lack of empirical knowledge about how consumers view health care quality in poor countries and how their perceptions affect their health-care-seeking behavior. I have implemented the model in Lotus 1-2-3 using that program's macrolanguage. While testing the model, several programming bugs have surfaced. Although the current version appears to be problem-free, it is possible that some defects still remain. If so, please contact me and I will try to correct them.

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